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ENWL001 - Demand Scenarios

ENWL001 - Demand Scenarios with Electric Heat and Commercial Capacity Options

There is significant uncertainty around the timescale and location of future changes in peak electricity demand.

Distribution network operators (DNOs) like ourselves need to make assumptions about the timescales and location of demand growth so we can invest efficiently in network capacity. Existing methods of demand analysis and forecast do not capture and address this uncertainty in a structured way.

The aim of this project was to develop and demonstrate better technical approaches to estimating current and future load by distribution network asset, reflecting the associated uncertainties in load. As part of the project we have delivered a set of scenarios based on a corrected version of past demand which forms the foundation for assessing commercial solutions to capacity problems.

The key elements of the project are:

a) Improved peak demand scenarios 
b) Analysis of domestic heat pumps adding to winter load 
c) Analysis of air conditioning adding to summer load
d) The real options model

The project closedown report and appendices can be viewed using the links below.

Timescales: April 2015 – April 2017.

Closedown report

Other project documents